Estimation and prediction of plastic waste annual input into the sea from China   总被引：5，自引：0，他引：5  

BAI Mengyu  ZHU Lixin  AN Lihui  PENG Guyu  LI Daoji 《海洋学报(英文版)》2018,37(11):26-39

Marine plastic debris has been a pervasive issue since the last century, and research on its sources and fates plays a vital role in the establishment of mitigation measures. However, data on the quantity of plastic waste that enters the sea on a certain timescale remain largely unavailable in China. Here, we established a model using material flow analysis method based on life cycle assessment to follow plastic product from primary plastic to plastic waste with statistical data and monitoring data from accurate sources. This model can be used to estimate and forecast the annual input of plastic waste into the sea from China until 2020. In 2011, 0.547 3–0.751 5 million tons of plastic waste entered the seas in China, with a growth rate of 4.55% per year until 2017. And the amount will decrease to0.257 1 to 0.353 1 million tons in 2020 under the influence of governmental management. The amount of plastic waste discharged from coastal areas calculated in this study was much larger than that from river, thus it is suggested to strengthen the governance and control of plastic waste in coastal fishery activities in China in order to reduce the amount of marine plastic waste input.  相似文献   

新疆伊犁地区季节冻土沿海拔的分布规律及其影响因素     

郝建盛  张飞云  黄法融  李兰海 《冰川冻土》2020,42(4):1179-1185

基于2000 - 2014年新疆伊犁地区不同海拔区域观测的冻融期内的冻土、 积雪和气象数据， 应用相关性分析和回归分析方法， 分析该地区季节冻土沿海拔的分布规律， 以及气温、 积雪对季节冻土特征的影响。结果表明： 伊犁地区表层土壤存在着每年11月份开始结冻， 于次年4月份完全融化的周期性变化。每个周期内土壤冻结时长随海拔以4 d·（100m）^-1的趋势增加， 土壤最大冻结深度随海拔以3.9 cm·（100m）^-1的趋势增加。土壤冻结时长与冻结期的平均气温具有显著负相关关系， 相关系数为-0.98（P<0.05）。土壤冻结日数与积雪覆盖历时呈正相关关系， 土壤的最大冻结深度与最大雪深呈负相关关系。随着海拔升高， 温度递减， 导致伊犁地区土壤最大冻结深度和土壤冻结日数整体呈现增加趋势。但在海拔相对较高的地区， 由于相对较厚积雪的影响， 出现土壤最大冻结深度随海拔升高而减小的反常现象。研究结果可为新疆伊犁地区季节冻土的分布对气候变化的响应研究提供支持， 帮助研究区域生态规划和水资源管理， 为农业发展制定适应气候变化对策。  相似文献   

长山群岛海洋渔业资源的平均营养级变化特征     

孙才志  曹威威  肖春柳 《海洋通报》2019,38(1):87-95

根据长山群岛 1965-2016 年渔业统计资料，分析长山群岛海域主要捕捞渔获物产量、平均营养级 （Mean trophic level， MTL）、渔业均衡指数 （Fishing in balance index，FiB） 年际变化，探讨其海洋渔业资源利用状况，并利用小波分析方法研究52年来渔获物 MTL 周期变化特征。研究表明： （1） 长山群岛捕捞产量、MTL 和 FiB 指数呈阶段性变化； （2） 长山群岛渔业资源开发经历初期开发、扩张捕捞、过度捕捞、资源破坏等四个阶段，渔业资源环境正在逐渐恶化；（3） 受人类捕捞活动影响，MTL 在 15~19 年和 24~34 年两种时间尺度下呈周期波动，30 年为第一主周期，17 年为第二主周期。长山群岛渔业资源破坏日益严重，未来几年平均营养级将呈下降趋势。为防止渔业资源进一步衰退，应加强捕捞活动管理力度，落实海洋渔业资源保护制度；完善预警机制，构建海洋渔业资源监测系统；同时应积极调整长山群岛渔业产业结构，提高资源产出效率.  相似文献   

Talus slope geomorphology investigated at multiple time scales from high-resolution topographic surveys and historical aerial photographs (Sanetsch Pass,Switzerland)     

Hanne Hendrickx  Lars De Sloover  Cornelis Stal  Reynald Delaloye  Jan Nyssen  Amaury Frankl 《地球表面变化过程与地形》2020,45(14):3653-3669

Talus slopes are common places for debris storage in high-mountain environments and form an important step in the alpine sediment cascade. To understand slope instabilities and sediment transfers, detailed investigations of talus slope geomorphology are needed. Therefore, this study presents a detailed analysis of a talus slope on Col du Sanetsch (Swiss Alps), which is investigated at multiple time scales using high-resolution topographic (HRT) surveys and historical aerial photographs. HRT surveys were collected during three consecutive summers (2017–2019), using uncrewed aerial vehicle (UAV) and terrestrial laser scanning (TLS) measurements. To date, very few studies exist that use HRT methods on talus slopes, especially to the extent of our study area (2 km²). Data acquisition from ground control and in situ field observations is challenging on a talus slope due to the steep terrain (30–37°) and high surface roughness. This results in a poor spatial distribution of ground control points (GCPs), causing unwanted deformation of up to 2 m in the gathered UAV-derived HRT data. The co-alignment of UAV imagery from different survey dates improved this deformation significantly, as validated by the TLS data. Sediment transfer is dominated by small-scale but widespread snow push processes. Pre-existing debris flow channels are prone to erosion and redeposition of material within the channel. A debris flow event of high magnitude occurred in the summer of 2019, as a result of several convective thunderstorms. While low-magnitude (<5,000 m³) debris flow events are frequent throughout the historical record with a return period of 10–20 years, this 2019 event exceeded all historical debris flow events since 1946 in both extent and volume. Future climate predictions show an increase of such intense precipitation events in the region, potentially altering the frequency of debris flows in the study area and changing the dominant geomorphic process which are active on such talus slopes. © 2020 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   

全球气候变化下南海诸岛保护优先区识别分析   总被引：3，自引：1，他引：2  

左秀玲  苏奋振  张宇  吴文周  吴迪 《地理学报》2020,75(3):647-661

全球变化下,珊瑚礁保护区是保护生物多样性、增强珊瑚礁对气候变暖抵抗力的有效方式,而维持珊瑚礁弹性是其核心内容。针对珊瑚礁最具有威胁性的热压力因子,基于南海1982—2009年卫星观测海表面温度（SST）数据和CMIP5加拿大地球系统模式CanESM2模型预估的2006—2100年南海SST数据构建热压力强度模型,从维持珊瑚礁弹性的角度识别IPCC RCP 4.5和RCP 8.5情景下南海诸岛保护优先区。结果表明：RCP 4.5和RCP 8.5情景下13%左右的南海诸岛珊瑚礁识别为保护优先区。根据热压力强度与珊瑚抵抗力及避难所关系,西沙群岛七连屿和晋卿岛近年观测与未来预估的热压力强度均比较低,在保障其服务功能的基础上建议实施完全保护;东沙群岛东沙环礁和中沙环礁排洪滩近年观测急性热压力强度较高但未来预估热压力强度较低,建议实施50%禁止利用保护;中沙群岛黄岩岛近年观测和未来预估的急性热压力强度均比较低,建议实施50%多用途保护。南沙群岛有14%左右的珊瑚礁识别为保护优先区,根据其热压力强度可实施30%~100%禁止利用保护或30%~50%多用途保护。RCP 4.5和RCP 8.5情景下的南海诸岛保护优先区及保护对策,可为维持珊瑚礁生态弹性及应对全球气候变化提供重要的参考价值。  相似文献   

Properties of geogrid-reinforced marine slope due to the groundwater level changes     

Ramin Vali  Jie Li  Gholamreza Shams  Pieter van Gelder 《Marine Georesources & Geotechnology》2018,36(6):735-748

Evaluation of slope stability, especially in the absence of a proper bed such as marine soils, is one of the most important issues in geotechnical engineering. Using geogrid layers to enhance the strength and stability of embankments is regarded as a commendable stabilization method. On the other hand, groundwater level erratically fluctuates in coastal areas. Therefore, the aim of this research is to study the effects of groundwater level changes on stability of a geogrid-reinforced slope on loose marine soils in Qeshm Island, Iran. At first, geotechnical properties of the site were obtained by comprehensive series of geotechnical laboratory and in situ tests. Then, by simultaneous changes of groundwater level and several parameters such as embankment slope, loading, geogrid length, geogrid number, and tensile strength of geogrid, different characteristics such as embankment safety factor (SF), vertical and horizontal displacements at embankment top and embankment base were studied. It was observed that groundwater level had significant effects on behavior of the embankment. For most of the observations, by decreasing the groundwater level, the displacements decreased and consequently safety factor increased. Increasing the length, number, and tensile strength of geogrid led to the reduction of displacements and an increase in the safety factor.  相似文献   

基于加权贝叶斯网络的海洋灾害风险评估     

李明  张韧  洪梅 《海洋通报》2018,(2):121-128

全球气候变化背景下,海洋灾害的群发性、难以预见性和灾害链效应日显突出,造成的损失逐年上升,开展海洋灾害的风险评估工作至关重要。针对海洋灾害评估中的不确定问题,本文首先基于风险理论剖析了海洋灾害风险的不确定性特征,构建了灾害评估指标体系;然后基于贝叶斯网络模型,提出针对不确定性灾害评估的风险贝叶斯网络,进而基于主客观定权,构建了加权贝叶斯网络评估模型;最后对我国沿海地区海洋灾害开展评估研究。实验表明,该评估模型有效实现海洋灾害的风险评估,具有实际可操作性。  相似文献   

环渤海地区海洋经济增长质量空间溢出效应研究   总被引：4，自引：2，他引：2  

李博  田闯  金翠  史钊源 《地理科学》2020,40(8):1266-1275

海洋经济向质量效益型转变是建设海洋强国的新要求。通过构建海洋经济?地理距离空间权重矩阵对2000—2014年环渤海地区17个沿海地级市海洋经济增长质量主体的空间交互作用及空间效应进行研究；借助空间计量模型对海洋经济增长质量空间效应影响因素进行甄别。研究表明：① 环渤海地区海洋经济增长质量主体呈显著空间相关性，存在空间交互作用；② 海洋经济增长质量存在空间溢出的正反馈效应。影响因素中对环渤海地区海洋经济增长质量的直接贡献强度排序为：海洋环境>海洋产业>海洋人才>海洋资本>海洋科技，对其他地区溢出效应影响的排序为：海洋基建>海洋人才>海洋资本。研究为环渤海地区海洋政策制定提供一定参考依据。  相似文献   

从第三极到北极： 积雪变化研究进展   总被引：5，自引：5，他引：0  

刘一静  孙燕华  钟歆玥  王树发  肖雄新  马丽娟  苏航  赵文宇  张廷军 《冰川冻土》2020,42(1):140-156

在全球气候变化背景下， 第三极和北极地区积雪是地表最活跃的自然要素之一， 其动态变化对气候环境和人类生活产生重要影响。通过回顾第三极和北极积雪研究进展， 阐述了降雪、 积雪范围、 积雪日数、 积雪深度和雪水当量在第三极和北极地区的时空分布特征和变化趋势。结果表明： 近50年， 特别是进入21世纪以来， 第三极和北极地区降雪比率均呈下降趋势； 积雪范围、 积雪日数、 积雪深度、 雪水当量总体均呈减小趋势， 融雪首日有所提前。同时就积雪变化对生态系统与气候系统的影响进行了论述， 评估了积雪的反馈作用。通过总结第三极和北极积雪变化研究进展， 凝练研究中存在的不足和未来发展趋势， 为提升积雪对气候变化及经济社会发展影响的认识提供重要科学支撑。  相似文献   

Variations in glacier volume and snow cover and their impact on lake storage in the Paiku Co Basin,in the Central Himalayas     

Xingxing Zhang  Rui Wang  Zhijun Yao  Zhaofei Liu 《水文研究》2020,34(8):1920-1933

Glaciers and snow cover are important constituents of the surface of the Tibetan Plateau. The responses of these phenomena to global environmental changes are sensitive, rapid and intensive due to the high altitudes and arid cold climate of the Tibetan Plateau. Based on multisource remote sensing data, including Landsat images, MOD10A2 snow product, ICESat, Cryosat-2 altimetry data and long-term ground climate observations, we analysed the dynamic changes of glaciers, snow melting and lake in the Paiku Co basin using extraction methods for glaciers and lake, the degree-day model and the ice and lake volume method. The interaction among the climate, ice-snow and the hydrological elements in Paiku Co is revealed. From 2000 to 2018, the basin tended to be drier, and rainfall decreased at a rate of −3.07 mm/a. The seasonal temperature difference in the basin increased, the maximum temperature increased at a rate of 0.02°C/a and the minimum temperature decreased at a rate of −0.06°C/a, which accelerated the melting from glaciers and snow at rates of 0.55 × 10⁷ m³/a and 0.29 × 10⁷ m³/a, respectively. The rate of contribution to the lake from rainfall, snow and glacier melted water was 55.6, 27.7 and 16.7%, respectively. In the past 18 years, the warmer and drier climate has caused the lake to shrink. The water level of the lake continued to decline at a rate of −0.02 m/a, and the lake water volume decreased by 4.85 × 10⁸ m³ at a rate of −0.27 × 10⁸ m³/a from 2000 to 2018. This evaluation is important for understanding how the snow and ice melting in the central Himalayas affect the regional water cycle.  相似文献